Getting Started
Creating Your Account
Open the Dashboard to explore market forecasts and research. Your access includes AI market analyses and deep research report per day. No credit card required.
Connecting Your Wallet
Wallet connection is optional and only for users who want to track their own Polymarket positions within the PolyScan dashboard. We never have access to your funds — the connection is read-only and only used to display your existing positions alongside our AI analysis. You can use all research features without connecting a wallet.
Understanding the Dashboard
The dashboard is your research home base. It shows active markets with AI probability forecasts, model agreement scores, and whale activity indicators. Use the category tabs to filter by Politics, Crypto, Sports, Economics, Tech, Culture, Science, or Other. Each market card shows our AI probability, the current market price, and the analytical gap between them.
Reading an AI Analysis Report
Click any market to open its full analysis report. You'll see: (1) The AI probability estimate and model agreement score, (2) Key factors driving the forecast, (3) Data quality assessment, (4) Sentiment analysis from social sources, (5) Whale activity context, and (6) The detailed reasoning from our 6-model ensemble. Each report takes approximately 2 seconds to generate.
Core Concepts
How the 6-Model Ensemble Works
Our prediction engine runs six frontier AI models in parallel on every market analysis:
- Claude Sonnet — Anthropic's strongest reasoning model, our anchor for complex markets
- Claude Haiku — Faster Anthropic variant providing an independent estimate
- GPT-4o — OpenAI's flagship, strong on technology and science
- GPT-4o-mini — Lighter variant whose divergence from GPT-4o is itself a signal
- Perplexity Sonar — Real-time web search grounded in current data
- Grok — xAI's model with live social sentiment from X
Each model independently estimates a probability. We then compute a weighted average (weights based on historical category accuracy), apply disagreement scoring, favourite-longshot bias correction, and per-category calibration multipliers to produce a single calibrated probability.
What CRPS Calibration Means
Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is the gold standard for evaluating probabilistic forecasters. Unlike simple win/loss tracking, CRPS measures how close your probability estimate was to the actual outcome.
A forecast of 90% on an event that happens scores much better than a forecast of 55% on the same event — even though both are technically "correct." This incentivizes precision, not just being on the right side.
Lower CRPS is better. Our current average CRPS across all categories is 0.127. We recalibrate per-category multipliers nightly based on CRPS scores from resolved forecasts.
Understanding the Analytical Gap
The "edge" or analytical gap represents the difference between our AI's calibrated probability and the current market price. For example, if our AI estimates 75% and the market is priced at 62%, the analytical gap is +13 percentage points.
A larger gap suggests the market may be mispricing the event relative to our AI's assessment. However, the AI can be wrong — and frequently is on certain types of markets. The gap is most informative when model agreement is high (5/6 or 6/6) and the category has strong historical accuracy. Always evaluate the reasoning behind the forecast, not just the number.
Model Agreement Scores
Model agreement indicates how many of our 6 models directionally agree on the forecast. "6/6 models agree" means all models are on the same side and tightly clustered. "3/6" means the models are split — a sign of genuine uncertainty.
High agreement (5/6 or 6/6) historically correlates with higher forecast accuracy. Low agreement (3/6 or 4/6) often indicates markets where the outcome is genuinely uncertain and our confidence is lower. We display model agreement alongside every forecast so you can factor it into your own research.
Whale Activity Indicators
Our whale detection system monitors Polymarket's CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) for unusual activity patterns including large-block orders, rapid accumulation, and order book imbalances.
When a large player places significant capital on one side of a market, we flag it as whale activity and show whether it agrees or disagrees with our AI forecast. This is contextual information — whales can be right or wrong — but it's a useful additional signal for research.
Data Sources
Our AI ensemble analyzes data from 9,000+ sources, aggregated in under 2 seconds. Here are the primary data categories:
Polymarket CLOB
Real-time order book depth, pricing, volume, and liquidity data directly from Polymarket's Central Limit Order Book. This is our primary market data source.
Kalshi
Cross-venue pricing from Kalshi's regulated prediction markets. Price divergences between Polymarket and Kalshi are themselves a signal of market inefficiency.
Metaculus & Manifold
Community forecasts from Metaculus (expert-weighted) and Manifold Markets. These platforms aggregate human forecaster opinions, providing a useful benchmark against our AI estimates.
Finnhub
Real-time financial data including stock prices, economic indicators, earnings dates, and financial news. Critical for economics and corporate-related markets.
Reddit & X (Twitter)
Social sentiment analysis from Reddit posts/comments and X posts. Useful for gauging public opinion on political, cultural, and crypto markets.
Perplexity Sonar
Real-time web search and research synthesis. This grounds our forecasts in current information rather than relying solely on training data cutoffs.
CoinGecko
Comprehensive crypto market data including prices, volumes, market caps, and exchange data for all major cryptocurrencies.
News Aggregation
Google News, Associated Press, Reuters, and Bloomberg feeds for breaking news and event tracking across all categories.
Cross-Platform Pricing
The Odds API and PredictIt data for cross-platform price comparison, helping identify pricing discrepancies across prediction venues.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long does an AI analysis take?
Typically under 2 seconds. We run all 6 models in parallel and aggregate results in real-time. Deep research reports (which include additional web research and source analysis) take 5-10 seconds.
How often are forecasts updated?
Our ensemble runs continuously. Active market analyses are refreshed every few hours or when significant new data is detected (e.g., a major news event or whale activity). You can also trigger a fresh analysis manually from the dashboard.
What does 'model agreement' mean?
Model agreement shows how many of our 6 AI models agree on the directional forecast. '6/6' means all models are aligned. '3/6' means they're split. Higher agreement historically correlates with higher accuracy, but is not a guarantee.
Can I see which model said what?
Researcher-tier subscribers can see individual model probabilities in the detailed analysis view. This lets you see, for example, that Perplexity Sonar is bullish at 82% while Grok is more conservative at 68% — and understand why.
How is the calibration multiplier calculated?
Every night, we compute CRPS scores for all resolved forecasts in each category. If a category shows systematic bias (e.g., overconfidence), we adjust the multiplier to correct it. The multiplier is a decimal (e.g., 0.97) applied to raw ensemble probabilities before they become the final calibrated output.
Does PolyScan place orders or execute transactions?
No. PolyScan is a research and analytics tool. We provide AI-generated forecasts and market analysis for informational purposes. We do not facilitate, execute, or recommend any transactions. We do not handle user funds.
How do I upgrade to the Researcher plan?
Visit the Pricing page and click 'Start Researching.' Payment is processed securely via Stripe. You'll get instant access to unlimited analyses, deep research reports, whale monitoring, and all Researcher features.